Daily Market Outlook, September 23, 2025 

Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group

Munnelly’s Macro Minute…

Asian stocks remained steady near record levels, following a technology-driven surge that propelled Wall Street to yet another peak. However, shares in Hong Kong and mainland China experienced declines. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index pulled back from its session highs and traded mostly unchanged. Hong Kong equities dropped by 1% as the city braces for its most severe typhoon since 2018. Chip-related stocks in Asia gained after Nvidia's investment in OpenAI was announced. With Tokyo closed for a public holiday, there was no trading of Treasuries during the Asian session. Meanwhile, the rupee sank to a new all-time low against the dollar. Gold prices have reached record levels, and stocks have climbed $15 trillion from their April lows, bolstered by a resilient US economy amid President Donald Trump's tariff conflicts and positive sentiment driven by the Federal Reserve's inaugural rate cut. This upward trend is now facing scrutiny as the earnings season approaches, with investors looking for new signals from the Fed, including a speech by Chair Jerome Powell scheduled for later today. China's benchmark CSI 300 Index dipped by as much as 1.2%, as some investors pointed to the necessity for a pause after an extended rally. The Shanghai Composite Index witnessed a decline of as much as 1.3%.

Following the conclusion of the Fed meeting, the quiet period ended, allowing several FOMC members to return to the spotlight on Monday. The lineup of speakers generally leaned toward the hawkish side, with the notable exception of Miran, a recent Trump appointee. Their remarks largely reflected this stance. For instance, Hammack (Cleveland, non-voter) expressed concern, stating, “It worries me that if we remove this restriction from the economy, things could start overheating again.” Similarly, Bostic (Atlanta, non-voter) took a firm position, arguing there’s “little reason to cut rates further” and projecting inflation won’t return to the 2% target until 2028. Musalem (St. Louis, voter) adopted a more balanced approach, indicating that further rate cuts would depend on additional deterioration in the labour market. Barkin (Richmond, non-voter) provided a nuanced perspective, focusing on how tariffs are impacting economic dynamics rather than directly addressing policy. In sharp contrast, Miran described current policy as overly restrictive, suggesting the appropriate Fed Funds rate should be roughly 2 percentage points lower than its current level. He warned that maintaining such a restrictive policy poses significant risks to the Fed’s employment mandate. These divergent viewpoints highlight the potential for further split votes in upcoming FOMC meetings.

Overnight Headlines

  • Fed’s Hammack: Inflation Still Too High, Cautious Easing Needed

  • Gold Reaches Fresh Record As Rate-Cut Hopes Rise

  • BoE’s Bailey: AI Can Help Regulators Find The ‘Smoking Gun’

  • Reeves Can Raise UK Income Tax While Sparing Workers, Study Finds

  • NZ To Appoint First Female RBNZ Governor On Wednesday

  • Australia's S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Declines To 51.6 In Sept

  • Nvidia To Invest Up To $100B In OpenAI

  • Treasury Yields Tick Up As Fed Officials Weigh Policy

  • Supreme Court To Hear Trump’s Bid To Fire FTC Commissioner

  • France Recognises Palestinian Statehood

  • Carney Urges Rapid Sanctions On Russia Over Energy Links

  • Amazon Exerted ‘Overwhelming’ Control Over Contractors, NLRB Says

  • Ford To Move World HQ For First Time In Nearly 70 Years

  • First Brands Considers Bankruptcy In Restructuring Talks

  • Heineken Buys Central American Assets In $3.2B Deal

FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut 

(1BLN+ represents larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)

  • EUR/USD: 1.1600 (371M), 1.1630-35 (574M), 1.1650 (200M)

  • 1.1655-65 (1.52BLN), 1.1675-80 (777M), 1.1690-00 (1.44BLN)

  • 1.1720-30 (653M), 1.1750-60 (2.7BLN), 1.1770-80 (1.6BLN)

  • 1.1800-10 (1.6BLN), 1.1850 (1.0BLN), 1.1875-80 (419M)

  • 1.1900 (677M)

  • USD/JPY: 146.00-10 (842M), 146.35-40 (480M), 147.15-20 (443M)

  • 147.50 (210M), 148.00-05 (376M), 148.25 (292M), 148.50 (241M)

  • 148.70-75 (652M). EUR/JPY: 172.50 (201M), 175.00 (505M)

  • USD/CHF: 0.7790 (300M), 0.7870 (300M), 0.7925 (599M)

  • 0.8050 (298M)

  • GBP/USD: 1.3475 (529M), 1.3520 (220M), 1.3635-40 (563M)

  • EUR/GBP: 0.8700 (409M), 0.8735 (229M), 0.8755 (261M)

  • 0.8780 (569M)

  • AUD/USD: 0.6530 (415M), 0.6580-90 (463M), 0.6600-05 (625M)

  • 0.6615-25 (455M), 0.6650-55 (1.4BLN), 0.6680 (553M)

  • NZD/USD: 0.5750 (282M), 0.5950 (210M)

  • USD/CAD: 1.3825-30 (715M), 1.3900 367M)

CFTC Positions as of the Week Ending 1/9/25 

  • Equity fund speculators have boosted their net short position in the S&P 500 CME by 55,766 contracts, bringing it to a total of 475,397 contracts. At the same time, equity fund managers have increased their net long position in the S&P 500 CME by 9,074 contracts, now totaling 891,634 contracts. 

  • Speculators have reduced their net short position in CBOT US 5-year Treasury futures by 117,989 contracts, resulting in a total of 2,436,774 contracts. They have also decreased their net short position in CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures by 38,673 contracts, now at 819,299 contracts. Conversely, speculators have raised their net short position in CBOT US 2-year Treasury futures by 28,509 contracts, reaching 1,403,470 contracts. Additionally, there has been an increase in net short position in CBOT US UltraBond Treasury futures by 12,686 contracts, totaling 278,167 contracts. Speculators have trimmed their net short position in CBOT US Treasury bonds futures by 4,470 contracts, reducing it to 94,138 contracts. 

  • The net long position for Bitcoin stands at 20 contracts. The Swiss franc has registered a net short position of -26,040 contracts, while the British pound's net short position is -6,580 contracts. The euro has a net long position of 117,759 contracts, and the Japanese yen holds a net long position of 61,411 contracts..

Technical & Trade Views

SP500

  • Daily VWAP Bullish

  • Weekly VWAP Bullish

  • Above 6440 Target 6666

  • Below 6420 Target 6370

EURUSD 

  • Daily VWAP Bullish

  • Weekly VWAP Bullish

  • Below 1.1750 Target 1.15

  • Above 1.18 Target 1.1910

GBPUSD 

  • Daily VWAP Bearish 

  • Weekly VWAP Bullish

  • Below 1.36 Target 1.30

  • Above 1.3650 Target 1.3850

USDJPY 

  • Daily VWAP Bullish 

  • Weekly VWAP Bullish

  • Below 1.49 Target 1.45

  • Above 1.51 Target 1.54

XAUUSD

  • Daily VWAP Bullish 

  • Weekly VWAP Bullish

  • Above 3600 Target 3800

  • Below 3500 Target 3400

BTCUSD 

  • Daily VWAP Bearish 

  • Weekly VWAP Bullish

  • Above 110k Target 118k

  • Below 109k Target 105k