Nomura: AI/Tech Call Buying Is Back — But So Are the Hedges

Big Picture

Markets are a bit uncomfortable after the latest geopolitical escalation involving U.S. strikes on Iranian oil tankers. Oil is higher, rates are higher, yield curves are bear-flattening, and equities are softer.

But underneath the surface, a familiar 2026 theme is reappearing:

Investors are going back into the highest-momentum trades of the year: AI, semis, energy, commodities, and short bonds.

This matters because many funds had recently reduced equity exposure. Now, some are adding risk back — especially in AI/tech — while also buying protection in volatility products like VIX calls.

What’s Working Again

1. The “AI + Energy” Barbell Is Back

One of the strongest trades of 2026 has been:

• Long semiconductors / AI infrastructure

• Long energy

• Short bonds / bearish duration

The logic is simple:

The world needs more compute power and more energy to support the AI buildout.

So the market is rewarding companies tied to:

• AI chips

• memory

• power infrastructure

• data centers

• energy supply

• copper and industrial metals

2. Trend-Following Strategies Are Making Money Again

CTA / trend-following models have recently benefited from:

• Short bonds

• Long commodities

• Long metals, especially copper

• Short U.S. dollar

• Select long equity futures

The key message:

Big macro trends are reappearing in rates, commodities, and FX.

But crowded trades can reverse quickly. The most crowded positioning risks appear to be:

• Short bonds

• Short dollar

• Long metals

If any of those reverse, it could create sharp moves.

The Key Equity Message

Funds Were Under-Positioned

Hedge fund equity exposure had become very low recently. That means many professional investors were not heavily long stocks.

The bearish arguments were:

1. Weak September seasonality

2. Midterm election drawdown concerns

3. Higher rates from Treasury supply / issuance

4. Hawkish central banks due to rising commodities

5. Energy and Iran / Strait of Hormuz risk

Because positioning was light, when stocks rallied last week, the market acted like investors were forced to chase.

Low positioning can make rallies sharper because underinvested funds have to buy back exposure.

The Juicy Part: Big AI / Tech Call Buying Is Back

Large call option buyers have returned in concentrated AI and tech names.

According to the Nomura note, a “mystery buyer” has spent approximately:

• $315 million in options premium

• $1.1 billion of delta exposure

• $5.8 million of vega exposure

This is important because call buying can create a feedback loop:

Stock goes up → call options get bought → dealers hedge by buying stock → stock goes up more.

This is the classic spot up, vol up dynamic.

Normally, volatility falls when stocks rise. But in these AI names, volatility is rising alongside stock prices because investors are aggressively buying upside calls.

That is bullish in the short term, but it can also make the trade crowded and fragile.

Names Seeing Big Call Activity

The note highlights large January call buying in several AI / tech-linked names:

The exact strikes are far out-of-the-money January calls, meaning buyers are positioning for a major continuation move into year-end / early next year.

Korea / Memory Semis Also Seeing Inflows

Foreign investors aggressively bought Korean equities during the Sunday/Monday reopening.

That matters because Korea is heavily tied to:

• semiconductors

• memory chips

• AI supply chain

• global hardware demand

This supports the idea that institutional money is moving back into the AI/semiconductor complex.

But Here’s the Catch: Investors Are Also Buying Hedges

As funds add back equity exposure, they now have something to protect.

So they are also buying VIX upside calls.

Examples mentioned:

• 50k March VIX 100 calls

• 125k November VIX 31 calls

• 126k November VIX 34 calls

• 128k October VIX 28 calls

Translation:

Investors are buying crash protection while re-entering equities.

This does not mean a crash is guaranteed. But it does show that investors are worried about a more convex downside move, especially with oil/rates/geopolitical risks in the background.

VIX 3-month call skew is now at the 91st percentile, meaning upside VIX calls are expensive and in high demand.

Why This Matters for Retail Traders

The Current Market Setup

The market is trying to do two things at once:

1. Chase AI/tech upside again

2. Buy protection against a sudden selloff

That creates a market where:

• individual AI names can squeeze higher

• option volatility can rise even as stocks rise

• dips may get bought quickly

• but downside breaks can accelerate if trend funds start selling

Actionable Takeaways

1. AI / Semi Momentum Is Back — Respect It

The call buying suggests renewed upside pressure in AI-related names.

Retail traders should watch:

• AMD

• INTC

• memory names

• AI infrastructure names

• data-center power names

• Korean semiconductor proxies

• SMH / SOXX type semiconductor ETFs

Actionable idea:
If already long, consider trailing stops rather than selling too early. Momentum may continue if call buying persists.

Avoid:
Chasing extended names blindly after two-day double-digit moves.

2. Watch for “Spot Up, Vol Up”

If a stock rises and implied volatility rises too, that usually signals aggressive call buying.

That can be bullish short term.

What to monitor:

• stock price up

• call volume up

• implied volatility up

• out-of-the-money calls active

• dealer hedging pressure

Actionable idea:
For momentum traders, this can support breakout trades. For options traders, it may favor call spreads over outright calls because implied volatility is getting expensive.

3. Use Call Spreads Instead of Naked Calls

Because implied volatility is rising, buying plain calls can be expensive.

A cleaner retail structure may be:

• buy one call

• sell a higher-strike call against it

Example structure:

Buy January at-the-money or slightly out-of-the-money call, sell further out-of-the-money January call.

This limits upside, but reduces premium paid and lowers volatility risk.

4. Don’t Ignore Rates and Oil

The biggest macro risks are still:

• rising oil

• rising rates

• stronger inflation impulse

• central banks staying hawkish

• geopolitical escalation

If oil keeps rising and rates keep climbing, the equity rally can get pressured.

Key things to watch:

• WTI / Brent crude

• 10-year Treasury yield

• 2-year Treasury yield

• U.S. dollar

• VIX

• semiconductor ETF relative strength

5. VIX Call Buying Means Hedges Are Coming Back

Large investors are buying VIX upside protection.

This usually means:

• they are adding equity exposure

• but they are nervous

• they want protection from a sudden air pocket

Actionable idea:
Retail traders should avoid being over-levered long after large rallies. Consider defined-risk trades.

Potential hedges include:

• small SPY/QQQ puts

• put spreads

• VIX call spreads

• reducing position size

• raising cash

• using stop losses

6. Watch CTA / Trend Deleveraging Levels

Nomura notes that equity trend-following signals have lost momentum due to sideways chop.

If markets start falling, some CTA models may be forced to sell global equity futures.

That would behave like synthetic negative gamma:

weakness creates more selling, which creates more weakness.

Actionable idea:
If major indices lose key moving averages or recent range lows, expect selling to potentially accelerate.

Watch:

• S&P 500 20-day and 50-day moving averages

• Nasdaq 100 support levels

• semiconductor ETF support

• Russell 2000 weakness

• VIX breakout above recent highs

Bullish Signals to Watch

The AI/tech rally has legs if you see:

• continued large call buying

• semis outperforming Nasdaq

• SMH / SOXX breaking higher

• implied volatility rising with spot

• Korea / Taiwan semiconductor strength

• copper staying strong

• energy remaining bid without rates spiraling higher

• VIX contained despite geopolitical headlines

Bearish Signals to Watch

Be cautious if you see:

• oil spike aggressively

• 10-year yields break higher

• dollar squeeze higher

• copper reverses hard

• AI names gap up then fade

• implied volatility stops rising with spot

• VIX breaks higher with equities lower

• S&P/Nasdaq lose key supports

• crowded “short bond / long metals / short dollar” trades unwind