SP500 LDN TRADING UPDATE 2/10/25
WEEKLY & DAILY LEVELS
***QUOTING ES1! CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS SUBTRACT ~61 POINTS***
WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 6650/60
WEEKLY RANGE RES 6720 SUP 6567
OCT MOPEX 6842/6487
DEC QOPEX 6303/7025
DAILY VWAP BULLISH 6689
WEEKLY VWAP BULLISH 6630
DAILY MARKET CONDITION - ONE TIME FRAMING HIGHER 6705
DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 6640/30
DAILY RANGE RES 6814 SUP 6699
2 SIGMA RES 6872 SUP 6609
VIX DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 17.75
TRADES & TARGETS
SHORT ON TEST/REJECT 6792 (SEE TODAY’S TRADE SET UP VIDEO FOR DETAILS)
LONG ON TEST/REJECT DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE TARGET 6792>DAILY RANGE RES
SHORT ON TEST REJECT DAILY RANGE RES TARGET DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE
LONG ON TEST/REJECT OF WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE TARGET DAILY RANGE RES
(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE AT OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)
GOLDMAN SACHS TRADING DESK VIEWS
# Market Summary - October 1, 2025
## Key Market Indices
- S&P 500: +34 bps, closing at 6,711 with a market on close (MOC) of $530 million to buy.
- NASDAQ 100 (NDX): +49 bps at 24,800.
- Russell 2000 (R2K): +24 bps at 2,442.
- Dow Jones: +9 bps at 46,441.
### Trading Volume
- Total Shares Traded: 19.9 billion across all US equity exchanges vs. YTD daily average of 16.8 billion shares.
## Volatility and Commodities
- VIX: +6 bps at 16.29.
- WTI Crude: -83 bps at $61.85.
- US 10-Year Treasury Yield: -5 bps at 4.09%.
- Gold: +46 bps at $3,891.
- DXY: -2 bps at 97.75.
- Bitcoin: +250 bps at $117,394.
## Market Insights
- Welcome to Q4 with a new S&P all-time high (ATH) at 6,711, despite a government shutdown.
- Notable rally in Large Cap Pharma post-Trump drug pricing press conference, marking the biggest day for LC Pharma since the vaccine announcement in November 2020.
- Retail sector outperformed, with strong performances from apparel (e.g., DKS, ASO) and Nike (NKE +6%).
- Crypto: Back in vogue with BTC +2.5% and ETH +4%. Calls made up ~65% of option volume, averaging 40 million calls traded daily over the last 20 sessions.
## Floor Activity
- Overall activity levels rated at 6 on a 1-10 scale.
- Our floor finished +446 bps to buy vs. a 30-day average of -9 bps.
- Long-only (LO) funds finished +$2.5 billion net buyers, while hedge funds (HFs) skewed -$800 million net sellers.
### Healthcare Sector
- The buy skew in healthcare ranks in the 97th percentile over the past 52 weeks, driven primarily by pharma demand from HFs and select generalist demand.
- Common feedback indicates that medtech underperformance was overdone, reflected in flows with a 30% buy skew in Medtech vs. 15% across all healthcare.
## Economic Outlook
- With the US government shutdown and a pending delay in economic data, earnings will be the next catalyst as investors prepare for the upcoming Q3 earnings season.
- Consensus estimates for the S&P 500 are at 6% growth, tracking towards Goldman Sachs' forecast of 7% year-over-year growth for 2025.
- Forecast for FY 2026 is 7% EPS growth, with a 12-month S&P price target of 7,200.
## Derivatives Market
- A busier morning as the market sold off overnight due to the government shutdown.
- Volatility initially bid on the selloff even as skew flattened; VIX ETPs remain long 180 million vega.
- A notable buyer (6 million vega) of end-of-year 6,950 calls, betting on continued upward momentum as all-time highs are breached.
- Dealer long downside gamma rolled off yesterday, but the gamma profile remains robust.
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Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!